Why Bearish Oil Bets Are Suddenly Looking Fragile
At the start of the year, sentiment in the oil market was overwhelmingly and deeply bearish. Most forecasts pointed to a glut, and a sizable one at that. Then the U.S. struck Venezuela, took its acting president to stand trial in the U.S., and threatened Iran, Mexico, and Colombia that they were next. Protests broke out in Iran. Saudi Arabia and the UAE took different sides in Yemen. Brent crude is already over $65 per barrel. Geopolitics has always been a wild card for the oil market. There is always a potential for supply disruption in some large…